Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use

作者：Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzmán, Xinkui Wang, Wei Yan · 发表于：Hydrology and earth system sciences · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021 · 被引用次数：19 · 研究领域：Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies、Water resources management and optimization、Water Systems and Optimization

Abstract. The accelerated consumption of water resources caused by the rapid increase in population and urbanization is intensifying the complex interactions across water resources, socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security (WSEF), which causes not only the imbalance between water supply and demand but also the vulnerability of both food and ecological systems. Therefore, identifying the dynamic coevolution and feedback process is one of the most crucial ways of achieving the goal of sustainable water use. In this study, we developed an integrated modeling framework to better identify the dynamic interaction and coevolution process of the nexus across WSEF systems in the context of sustainable water uses by coupling system dynamic (SD) model and multi-objective optimization model. The SD model is used to simulate both the dynamic interaction of each agent and the coevolution process of the whole nexus system by positive/negative feedback loops. The multi-objective optimization model is used to quantify the negative feedback loops of the SD model by generating the optimal scheme of different water users. Finally, the model uncertainty considering different weighting factors is analyzed. The framework is applied to the upper reaches of the Guijiang River basin, China. Results show that (i) the rapid economic growth increases the conflict between the water uses for socioeconomic development and ecological protection, intensifying the ecological awarenes...