Development and Validation of a Predictive Scoring System for Colorectal Cancer Patients With Liver Metastasis: A Population-Based Study

作者：Yinghao Cao, Songqing Ke, Shenghe Deng, Lizhao Yan, Junnan Gu, Fuwei Mao, Yifan Xue, Changmin Zheng, Wentai Cai, Hongli Liu, Han Li, Fumei Shang, Zhuolun Sun, Ke Wu, Ning Zhao, Kailin Cai · 发表于：Frontiers in Oncology · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.3389/fonc.2021.719638 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis、Cholangiocarcinoma and Gallbladder Cancer Studies、Colorectal Cancer Treatments and Studies

Liver metastasis in colorectal cancer (CRC) is common and has an unfavorable prognosis. This study aimed to establish a functional nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM). A total of 9,736 patients with CRCLM from 2010 to 2016 were randomly assigned to training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent clinicopathologic predictive factors, and a nomogram was constructed to predict CSS and OS. Multivariate analysis demonstrated age, tumor location, differentiation, gender, TNM stage, chemotherapy, number of sampled lymph nodes, number of positive lymph nodes, tumor size, and metastatic surgery as independent predictors for CRCLM. A nomogram incorporating the 10 predictors was constructed. The nomogram showed favorable sensitivity at predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.816, 0.782, and 0.787 in the training cohort; 0.827, 0.769, and 0.774 in the internal validation cohort; and 0.819, 0.745, and 0.767 in the external validation cohort, respectively. For CSS, the values were 0.825, 0.771, and 0.772 in the training cohort; 0.828, 0.753, and 0.758 in the internal validation cohort; and 0.828, 0.737, and 0.772 in the external validation cohort, respectively. Calibration curves and ROC curves revealed that using our...