Nomogram to predict survival of patients with advanced and metastatic pancreatic Cancer

作者：Guang-Hua Deng, Yajing Lv, Hong Yan, Da Sun, T. T. Qu, Yueyin Pan, Quanli Han, Guanghai Dai · 发表于：BMC Cancer · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1186/s12885-021-08943-w · 被引用次数：25 · 研究领域：Pancreatic and Hepatic Oncology Research、COVID-19 and healthcare impacts、Lung Cancer Research Studies

BACKGROUND: Nomograms are rarely employed to estimate the survival of patients with advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer (PC). Herein, we developed a comprehensive approach to using a nomogram to predict survival probability in patients with advanced and metastatic PC. METHODS: A total of 323 patients with advanced and metastatic PC were identified from the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital. A baseline nomogram was constructed using baseline variables of 323 patients. Additionally, 233 patients, whose tumors showed initial responses to first-line chemotherapy, were enrolled in the chemotherapy response-based model. 128 patients and 108 patients with advanced and metastatic PC from January 2019 to April 2021 were selected for external validating baseline model and chemotherapy response-based model. The 1-year and 2-year survival probability was evaluated using multivariate COX regression models. The discrimination and calibration capacity of the nomograms were assessed using C-statistic and calibration plots. The predictive accuracy and net benefit of the nomograms were evaluated using ROC curve and DCA, respectively. RESULTS: In the baseline model, six variables (gender, KPS, baseline TB, baseline N, baseline WBC and baseline CA19-9) were used in the final model. In the chemotherapy response-based model, nine variables (KPS, gender, ascites, baseline N, baseline CA 19-9, baseline CEA, change in CA 19-9 level at week, change in CEA level at week and ...