Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments

作者：Xinglong Gong, Shuping Du, Fengyu Li, Yibo Ding · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108198 · 被引用次数：49 · 研究领域：Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Tree-ring climate responses、Climate variability and models

Currently, studies analysing the relationship between climatic factors and vegetation may present some problems, including considering insufficient spatiotemporal characteristics, contradictory results and deficiencies in reflecting vegetation changes in the future. To address this, we first analysed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the impact of climatic factors on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a multiple regression model constructed from the perspective of water deficit. Second, the two carbon emission scenarios provided by Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) were combined to predict the future vegetation conditions in China. Finally, trend analysis, Sen's slope and cycle analysis methods were employed to explore the trend of the NDVI and its spatiotemporal characteristics in the arid and semiarid regions of China. The results show that the impact of climate change on vegetation possesses distinct spatiotemporal characteristics, and the influences are different depending on the month and location. Vegetation has greened in most arid and semiarid areas of China during historical periods. In the future, NDVI variation will show a fluctuating tendency, and increasing and declining trends for the NDVI will alternately occur monthly. Although both precipitation and temperature will increase in the future, spring vegetation will be threatened by stress in some areas due to severe drought caused by the increase in evaporation, whic...