Scenario simulation of ecological risk based on land use/cover change – A case study of the Jinghe county, China

作者：Yue Zhang, Yuzhen Li, Jing Lv, Juan Wang, Yan Wu · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108176 · 被引用次数：50 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

The Jinghe County of the Ebinur Lake Basin was chosen as the study area. Based on Landsat TM / OLI images obtained in 2007 and 2017, this paper attempts to use CLUE-S model to predict LUCC under three different scenarios (Natural Development scenario, Farmland Protection scenario, Water Resources Protection scenarios) in 2027. Landscape indices and ecological risk index were calculated and spatially interpolated for the whole region, and the results of ecological risk could be divided into five different zones: extremely low, low, moderate, high and extremely high. They were carried out for assessing the spatial–temporal changes in ecological risk for each landscape pattern. The results show that: (1) Among the three scenarios designed in this paper, the spatial distribution of LUCC in the Water Resource Protection scenario has the most obvious changes, followed by the Farmland Protection scenario and the Natural Development scenario becomes the third. In the water resources protection scenario, the scale of the desert decreases, but the forest and grass part increases, which is conducive to ecological improvement. (2) the distribution area of high ecological risk areas was the largest of three different scenarios, especially the farmland protection scenario. The area of low-risk level is the largest under the water conservation scenario. The ecological risk of LUCC under the water resources protection scenario is lower, which is better for ecological environment. (3) Water b...