Understanding and forecasting the subseasonal meteorological drivers of the European electricity system in winter

作者：Hannah Bloomfield, David Brayshaw, Andrew Charlton‐Perez, Paula González, David Livings · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19129 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Energy Load and Power Forecasting、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

<p><span>Renewable electricity is a key enabling step to</span><span> </span><span>globally </span>decarboni<span>se the</span> energy<span> sector. Europe is at the forefront of renewable deployment and this has dramatically increased the weather sensitivity of the continent's power systems. Despite the importance of weather to energy systems, the meteorological drivers remain difficult to identify, and are poorly understood. This study presents a new and generally applicable approach, targeted circulation types (TCTs). In contrast to standard meteorological circulation typing methods, such as weather regimes, TCTs convolve the weather sensitivity of an impacted system of interest (in this case, the electricity system) with the intrinsic structures of the atmospheric circulation to identify its meteorological drivers.</span></p><p><span>A new, freely available, 38 year reanalysis-based reconstruction of daily electricity demand, wind power and solar power generation across Europe is created and used to identify the winter large</span>‐<span>scale circulation patterns of most interest to the European electricity grid. TCTs are shown to provide greater explanatory power for power system varia...