Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

作者：Mansour Almazroui, Fahad Saeed, Sajjad Saeed, Muhammad Ismail, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, M. Nazrul Islam, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Enda O’Brien, Shahzad Kamil, Irfan Ur Rashid, Imran Nadeem · 发表于：Earth Systems and Environment · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1007/s41748-021-00250-5 · 被引用次数：226 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Abstract This paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability wit...