Assessing the Impacts of COVID‐19 on the Industrial Sectors and Economy of China

作者：Ling Tan, Xianhua Wu, Ji Guo, Ernesto D.R. Santibañez González · 发表于：Risk Analysis · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1111/risa.13805 · 被引用次数：79 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Disaster Management and Resilience、COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

Since December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading continuously in China and many countries in the world, causing widespread concern among the whole society. To cope with the epidemic disaster, most provinces and cities in China have adopted prevention and control measures such as home isolation, blocking transportation, and extending the Spring Festival holiday, which has caused a serious impact on China's output of various sectors, international trade, and labor employment, ultimately generating great losses to the Chinese economic system in 2020. But how big is the loss? How can we assess this for a country? At present, there are few analyses based on quantitative models to answer these important questions. In the following, we describe a quantitative-based approach of assessing the potential impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economic system and the sectors taking China as the base case. The proposed approach can provide timely data and quantitative tools to support the complex decision-making process that government agencies (and the private sector) need to manage to respond to this tragic epidemic and maintain stable economic development. Based on the available data, this article proposes a hypothetical scenario and then adopts the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to calculate the comprehensive economic losses of the epidemic from the aspects of the direct shock on the output of seriously affected sectors, international trade, and labor force. T...