The Evaluation of Preventive and Control Measures on Congenital Syphilis in South China: A Time Series Modelling Study

作者：Xijia Tang, Wen Chen, Shangqing Tang, Peizhen Zhao, Ling Li, Cheng Wang · 发表于：Research Square · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.21203/rs.3.rs-806137/v1 · 研究领域：Syphilis Diagnosis and Treatment、Medical Coding and Health Information、HIV, TB, and STIs Epidemiology

Abstract Background: The re-emergence of congenital syphilis (CS) was witnessed since the 1990s over the globe, including China. The country, therefore, carried out the prevention and control measures in an all-around way in 2010, including large-scale syphilis screening for pregnant women, providing standard treatment and follow-up management for both infected mothers and their infants, as well as the supportive strategies from the government as the response. However, there is a lack of the published evaluation for these measures when the deadline of the final goal (CS notification rate < 15/100,000 livebirths by 2025) is approaching. This study evaluates the effectiveness of CS control measures based on the change of the notification rate from 2005 to 2020 and predicts the CS case number in the following year in Guangdong, one of the provinces which used to have the highest CS notification rate in China. Methods: The interrupted time series analysis was conducted to compare changes in slope and level of CS notification rate from 2005 to 2020 in Guangdong Province and its three regions with different economic development levels. The year 2012 was identified as the intervention point, the time when Guangdong Province officially launched a bunch of measures. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was established to predict the CS case number of Guangdong Province in 2021. Results: A total of 12,687 CS cases were reported from 2005 to 2020. The notification rate ...