Dynamical Variations of the Global COVID‐19 Pandemic Based on a SEICR Disease Model: A New Approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu

作者：Xia Wang, Gang Yin, Zengyun Hu, Daihai He, Qianqian Cui, Xiaomei Feng, Zhidong Teng, Qi Hu, Jiansen Li, Qiming Zhou · 发表于：GeoHealth · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1029/2021gh000455 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research、Influenza Virus Research Studies

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this study, global COVID-19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 84 countries across the five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, and cold. A new approach named Yi Hua Jie Mu is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID-19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1-2 years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID-19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID-19. The role of the climate on the COVID-19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non-pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic.