Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

作者：Natalie C Galles, Patrick Y Liu, Rachel L Updike, Nancy Fullman, Jason Nguyen, Sam Rolfe, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Megan F. Schipp, Ashley Marks, Gdiom Gebreheat Abady, Kaja Abbas, Sumra Wajid Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Hassan Abolhassani, Akine Eshete Abosetugn, Maryam Adabi, Abdu A. Adamu, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Shailesh M Advani, Saira Afzal, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Sohail Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Sepideh Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tarik A. Rashid, Yusra Ahmed Salih, Yonas Akalu, Addis Aklilu, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Luciana Albano, Yosef Alemayehu, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Liaqat Ali, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sami Almustanyir, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Hubert Amu, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Adnan Ansar, Alireza Ansari‐Moghaddam, Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo, Benny Antony, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab‐Zozani, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Judie Arulappan, Asma Awan, Mamaru Ayenew Awoke, Muluken Altaye Ayza, Ghasem Azarian, Ahmed Y. Azzam, B B Darshan, Zaheer‐Ud‐Din Babar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Simachew Animen Bante, Till Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Quique Bassat, Narantuyа Bayarmagnai, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramírez, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Habtamu Gebrehana Belay, Uzma Belgaumi, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Dinesh Bhandari, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Antonio Biondi, Archith Boloor, Dejana Braithwaite, Danilo Buonsenso, Zahid A Butt, Paulo Augusto Moreira Camargos, Giulia Carreras, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Raja Chandra Chakinala, Jaykaran Charan, Souranshu Chatterjee, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Vera Marisa Costa, Rosa A S Couto, Omid Dadras, Amare Belachew Dagnew, Baye Dagnew, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Meseret Derbew Molla, Behailu Tariku Derseh, Rupak Desai, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, Meghnath Dhimal, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Daniel Díaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Fariba Dorostkar, Bassey Edem, Hisham Atan Edinur, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Muhammed Elhadi, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Aisha Elsharkawy, Shymaa Enany, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu, Sayeh Ezzikouri, Jawad Fares, Pawan Faris, Berhanu Elfu Feleke, Tomas Y Ferede, Eduarda Fernandes, João Carlos Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Mark R. Francis, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M. Gad, Shilpa Gaidhane, Silvano Gallus, Tushar Garg, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Teshome Gebre, Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Berhe Gebremichael, Bradford D. Gessner, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Mansour Ghafourifard, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Ionela-Roxana Glăvan, Е. В. Глушкова, Mahaveer Golechha, Kebebe Bekele Gonfa, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Houman Goudarzi, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Yuming Guo, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Emily Haeuser, Rabih Halwani, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Shafiul Haque, Harapan Harapan, Arief Hargono, Abdiwahab Hashi, Shoaib Hassan, Mohamed H Hassanein, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Mohamed Hegazy, Golnaz Heidari, Kamal Hezam, Ramesh Holla, Mohammad Enamul Hoque, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Vivian Chia‐Rong Hsieh, Junjie Huang, Ayesha Humayun, Rabia Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Sumant Inamdar, Usman Iqbal, Lalu Muhammad Irham, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Ramaiah Itumalla, Ravi Prakash Jha, Farahnaz Joukar, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Zul Kamal, Stanley Kamande, Himal Kandel, André Karch, Getinet Kassahun, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Patrick DMC Katoto, Bayew Kelkay, André Pascal Kengne, Yousef Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Junaid Khan, Maseer Khan, Moien AB Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Abdullah T Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gyu Ri Kim, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Soewarta Kosen, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Vaman Kulkarni, Avinash Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Alexander Kwarteng, Carlo La Vecchia, Faris Hasan Lami, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Zohra S Lassi, Hankil Lee, Yeong Yeh Lee, Miriam Levi, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Xuefeng Liu, Stany W. Lobo, Platon D Lopukhov, Rafael Lozano, Ricardo Lutzky Saute, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Alaa Makki, Ahmad Azam Malik, Fariborz Mansour‐Ghanaei, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, LG Mantovani, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Philippa C. Matthews, John Robert C. Medina, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Tuomo J Meretoja, Amanual Getnet Mersha, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, George Milne, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Hamid Reza Mirzaei, Sanjeev Misra, Prasanna Mithra, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Teroj A. Mohamed, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Yousef Mohammad, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Arif Ahmed Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Archisman Mohapatra, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Ahmed Al Montasir, Catrin E. Moore, Ghobad Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Ulrich Müeller, Sandra B. Munro, Mohsen Naghavi, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Ionuţ Negoi, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Vincent Ebuka Nwatah, Bogdan Oancea, Chimedsuren Оchir, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Andrew T Olagunju, Babayemi O. Olakunde, Obinna Onwujekwe, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Owolabi, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Keyvan Pakshir, Eun‐Cheol Park, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Mona Pathak, Rajan Paudel, Shrikant Pawar, Jeevan Pereira, Mário Fernando Prieto Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Marina Pinheiro, Majid Pirestani, Vivek Podder, Р. В. Полибин, Richard Charles G Pollok, Maarten J. Postma, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mosiur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Aashish Rajesh, Rebecca E. Ramshaw, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Chythra R Rao, Sowmya J Rao, Priya Rathi, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, André M. N. Renzaho, Negar Rezaei, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, María Jesús Ríos-Blancas, Emma L B Rogowski, Luca Ronfani, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Anas M. Saad, Siamak Sabour, Basema Saddik, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Nasir Salam, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Francesco Sanmarchi, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Benn Sartorius, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Monika Sawhney, Deepak Saxena, Sonia Saxena, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Allen Seylani, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Pavanchand H Shetty, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Negussie Boti Sidemo, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Smriti Sinha, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amin Soheili, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Ker‐Kan Tan, Yohannes Tekalegn, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Bhaskar Thakur, Rekha Thapar, Aravind Thavamani, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Hamid Reza Tohidinik, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Manjari Tripathi, Berhan Tsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Anayat Ullah, Saif Ullah, Sana Ullah, Brigid Unim, Marco Vacante, Diana Zuleika Velazquez, Bay Vo, Sebastián Vollmer, Giang Thu Vu, Linh Gia Vu, Yasir Waheed, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Vahit Yiğit, Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Deniz Yüce, Ismaeel Yunusa, Mohammad Zamani, Maryam Zamanian, Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Alimuddin Zumla, Christopher J L Murray, Stephen S Lim, Jonathan F Mosser · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00984-3 · 被引用次数：223 · 研究领域：Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy、Immune responses and vaccinations、Bacterial Infections and Vaccines

BACKGROUND: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. METHODS: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. FINDINGS: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interv...