Prediction and Analysis of Fire Rescue Times Based on ARMA Model

作者：Zhiyuan Wang · 发表于：Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.25236/ajcis.2021.040402 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Safety and Risk Management、Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics

In order to study the prediction and analysis of fire rescue in a certain area, this paper mainly forecasts the number of police calls by establishing a mathematical model, and analyzes the correlation between the area and the incident. Given the number of calls in each month of 2016-2020, we can predict the number of fire rescue calls in each month of 2021 in the future. Because different times are not linearly related to the number of calls, we can establish a model through the time series data of paper [1]. This paper establishes ARMA model to study the law of the development of the number of police calls over time. The accuracy and stability of the model are verified by the data set in 2020, and the number of fire rescue police calls in each month of 2021 is predicted by this model.