Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

作者：Simon I Hay, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Abdishakur Abdulle, Teshome Abuka Abebo, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Ilana N. Ackerman, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Ashkan Afshin, Rakesh Aggarwal, Sutapa Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Sneha Aiyar, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Faris Lami, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Shazia Alam, Deena Alasfoor, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Raghib Ali, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Juma Alkaabi, Ala’a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Christine A. Allen, Fatma Al‐Maskari, Mohammad AbdulAziz AlMazroa, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Shirina Alsowaidi, Benjamin M. Althouse, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Megha Arora, Al Artaman, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Niguse Tadele Atnafu, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Shally Awasthi, Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh, Peter Azzopardi, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Marlena S. Bannick, Aleksandra Barać, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Sı́món Barquera, Lope H. Barrero, Sanjay Basu, Robert J. Battista, Katherine E. Battle, Bernhard T. Baune, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Derrick Bennett, James R. Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Jennifer Benson, Adugnaw Berhane, Derbew Fikadu Berhe, Eduardo Bernabé, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Mircea Beuran, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Anil Bhansali, Samir Bhatt, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Kelly Bienhoff, Boris Bikbov, Charles Birungi, Stan Biryukov, Donal Bisanzio, Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Fiona Blyth, Dube Jara Boneya, Dipan Bose, Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm, Rupert Bourne, Michael Brainin, Carol Brayne, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle B. Britton, Traolach Brugha, Rachelle Buchbinder, Lemma N Bulto, Blair R Bumgarner, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ewan Cameron, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Hélène Carabin, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Juan Jesús Carrero, Austin Carter, Félix Carvalho, Daniel Casey, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Chris D Castle, Ferrán Catalá-López, Jung‐Chen Chang, Fiona Charlson, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Honglei Chen, Mirriam Chibalabala, Chioma Ezinne Chibueze, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Rajiv Chowdhury, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Danny V. Colombara, Leslie T. Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, Michael H Criqui, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Marita Cross, John A. Crump, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Koustuv Dalal, Albertino Damasceno, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Kairat Davletov, Barbora de Courten, Diego De Leo, Hans De Steur, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Louisa Degenhardt, Selina Deiparine, Robert P Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Don C. Des Jarlais, Subhojit Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Preet K. Dhillon, Daniel Dicker, Shirin Djalainia, Huyen Phuc, Клара Докова, David Teye Doku, E. Ray Dorsey, Kadine Priscila Bender dos Santos, Tim Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Beth E. Ebel, Michelle Echko, Ziad El‐Khatib, Ahmadali Enayati, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Holly E Erskine, Setegn Eshetie, Babak Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele Fanuel, Tamer H. Farag, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Mir Sohail Fazeli, Valery L. Feigin, Andrea B Feigl, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, João Carlos Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Christina Fitzmaurice, Abraham D Flaxman, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Richard C. Franklin, Joseph Frostad, Nancy Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Neal D. Futran, Emmanuela Gakidou, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Teshome Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Ayele Geleto, Bikila Lencha Gemechu, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Peter W. Gething, Alireza Ghajar, Katherine B. Gibney, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Ginawi, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Giorgia Giussani, William Godwin, Kashish Goel, Shifalika Goenka, Ellen M Goldberg, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Richard A. Gosselin, Carolyn Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Alessandra C. Goulart, Nicholas Graetz, H. C. Gugnani, Prakash Chandra Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Vladimir Hachinski, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Alemayehu Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Mouhanad Hammami, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Habtamu Abera Hareri, Josep María Haro, Kimani M Harun, James Harvey, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Delia Hendrie, Nathaniel J Henry, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Pouria Heydarpour, Hans W. Hoek, Howard J. Hoffman, Masako Horino, Nobuyuki Horita, Hung Chak Ho, Sorin Hostiuc, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Aung Soe Htet, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Chantal Huynh, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Ehimario Igumbor, Chad Ikeda, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Peter James, Simerjot K Jassal, Mehdi Javanbakht, Sudha Jayaraman, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Denny John, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Ritul Kamal, Chittaranjan Kar, Nadim E Karam, André Karch, Corine Karema, Seyed M Karimi, Chanté Karimkhani, Amir Kasaeian, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Anshul Kastor, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Laura Kemmer, André Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Khader, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Abdullah T Khoja, Ardeshir Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Christian Kieling, Yun Jin Kim, Daniel Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Adnan Kısa, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Niranjan Kissoon, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Dhaval Kolte, Jacek A Kopec, Soewarta Kosen, Georgios A. Kotsakis, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael Kravchenko, Kristopher J Krohn, G Anil Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Anton Lager, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Nkurunziza Lambert, Qing Lan, Van Charles Lansingh, Anders Larsson, Janet L Leasher, Paul H. Lee, J. Paul Leigh, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Janni Leung, Ricky Leung, Miriam Levi, Li Y, Yongmei Li, Xiaofeng Liang, Misgan Legesse Liben, Stephen S Lim, Shai Linn, Patrick Y Liu, Angela Liu, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Giancarlo Logroscino, Katharine J Looker, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Tim Lucas, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Emilie R Maddison, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Carlos Magis‐Rodríguez, Mahdi Mahdavi, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Rajesh Malhotra, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Helena Manguerra, Treh Manhertz, LG Mantovani, Chabila C Mapoma, Lyn March, Laurie B. Marczak, José Martı́nez-Raga, Paulo Henrique Viegas Martins, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Ira Martopullo, Winfried März, Manu Raj Mathur, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Madeline McGaughey, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Suresh Mehata, Toni Meier, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Mubarek Abera Mengistie, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, George A. Mensah, Tuomo J Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Renata Micha, Anoushka Millear, Ted R. Miller, Shawn Minnig, Mojde Mirarefin, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Shiva Raj Mishra, Philip B. Mitchell, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Alireza Mohammadi, Muktar Sano Kedir, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Murali B V Mohan, Ali H. Mokdad, Sarah K Mollenkopf, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Rintaro Mori, Shane D. Morrison, Mark Moses, Cliff Mountjoy-Venning, Kalayu Brhane Mruts, Ulrich Müeller, Kate Muller, Michele E Murdoch, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy, Srinivas Murthy, Kamarul Imran Musa, Jean B. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Kovin Naidoo, Vinay Nangia, Jamal Nasher, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Dumessa Edessa Negasa, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Ionuţ Negoi, Charles R. Newton, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Minh Nguyen, Emma Nichols, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Alypio Nyandwi, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Martin O’Donnell, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Anselm Okoro, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Helen Elizabeth Olsen, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, Alberto Ortíz, Richard H. Osborne, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Majdi Osman, Erika Ota, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Rosana Pacella, Basant Kumar Panda, Jeyaraj Pandian, Christina Papachristou, Eun‐Kee Park, Charles Parry, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Snehal T Patil, Scott B. Patten, George Patton, Deepak Paudel, Katherine Paulson, Neil Pearce, David M. Pereira, Krystle Perez, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, Carrie Beth Peterson, William A. Petri, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, Geoffrey Phipps, David M. Pigott, Julian David Pillay, Christine Pinho, М. А. Пирадов, Dietrich Plaß, Martin A Pletcher, Svetlana Popova, Richie Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Narayan Prasad, Carrie Purcell, Manorama Purwar, Mostafa Qorbani, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Rynaz H S Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Saša Rajšić, Usha Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, R. Thara, Zane Rankin, Paturi Vishnupriya Rao, Puja C Rao, Salman Rawaf, Sarah E. Ray, Robert C. Reiner, Nikolas Reinig, Marissa B Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Satar Rezaei, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Hirbo Shore Roba, Stephen R. Robinson, David Rojas‐Rueda, Mohammad Bagher Rokni, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, George Mugambage Ruhago, Soheil Saadat, Mahdi Safdarian, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Ramesh Sahathevan, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Joseph S Salama, Muhammad Muhammad Saleh, Joshua A. Salomon, Sundeep Salvi, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Damian Santomauro, João Vasco Santos, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Kathryn Schelonka, María Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván‐Mori, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mansour Shamsipour, Rajesh Sharma, Jayendra Sharma, Jun She, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Chloe Shields, Girma Temam Shifa, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Shreya Shirude, Kawkab Shishani, Haitham Shoman, Soraya Siabani, Abla Mehio Sibai, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Donald H. Silberberg, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jasvinder A. Singh, Om Prakash Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Eirini Skiadaresi, Erica Leigh Slepak, David L. Smith, Mari Smith, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Eugène Sobngwi, Michael Soljak, Reed J D Sorensen, Tatiane Moraes de Sousa, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nicholas Steel, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, S. Steinke, Mark A. Stokes, Lars Jacob Stovner, Bryan Strub, Michelle Subart, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bruno Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, Dillon O Sylte, Cassandra Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Getachew Redae Taffere, Jukka Takala, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanné, Yihunie L. Tarekegn, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Nuno Taveira, Hugh R. Taylor, Teketo Kassaw Tegegne, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Tesfalidet Tekelab, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Dawit Tesfaye, Belay Tesssema, JS Thakur, Ornwipa Thamsuwan, Alice Theadom, Andrew Theis, Katie E Thomas, Nihal Thomas, Robert L. Thompson, Amanda G. Thrift, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Myriam Tobollik, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Miguel Tortajada, Mathilde Touvier, Jefferson Traebert, Bach Xuan Tran, Christopher Troeger, Thomas Truelsen, Derrick Tsoi, E. Murat Tuzcu, Hayley Tymeson, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Rachel L Updike, Olalekan A. Uthman, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Job F. M. van Boven, Santosh Varughese, Tommi Vasankari, Lennert Veerman, S Venkatesh, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Ramesh Vidavalur, Lakshmi Vijayakumar, Francesco Saverio Violante, Abhishek Vishnu, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Fiseha Wadilo, Tolassa Wakayo, Mitchell T. Wallin, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Daniel J. Weiss, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Tissa Wijeratne, Hywel C Williams, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Belete Getahun Woldeyes, Charles Wolfe, Rachel Woodbrook, Anthony D. Woolf, Abdulhalik Workicho, Denis Xavier, Gelin Xu, Simon Yadgir, Mohsen Yaghoubi, Bereket Yakob, Lijing L. Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Pengpeng Ye, Mahari Gidey Yihdego, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Elias Asfaw Zegeye, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Xueying Zhang, Yingfeng Zheng, Maigeng Zhou, Ben Zipkin, Sanjay Zodpey, Leo Zoeckler, Liesl Zühlke, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32130-x · 被引用次数：2164 · 研究领域：Health disparities and outcomes、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Global Maternal and Child Health

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95...