Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality After Esophagectomy for Cancer

作者：Xavier Benoît D’Journo, David Boulate, Alex Fourdrain, Anderson Loundou, Mark I. van Berge Henegouwen, Suzanne S. Gisbertz, J. Robert O’Neill, Arnulf H. Hoelscher, Guillaume Piessen, Jan van Lanschot, Bas P. L. Wijnhoven, Blair A. Jobe, Andrew Davies, Paul M. Schneider, Manuel Pera, Magnus Nilsson, Philippe Nafteux, Yuko Kitagawa, Christopher R. Morse, Wayne L. Hofstetter, Daniela Molena, Jimmy Bok Yan So, Arul Immanuel, Simon L. Parsons, Michael Hareskov Larsen, James P. Dolan, Stephanie G. Wood, Nick Maynard, B. Mark Smithers, Sonia Puig, Simon Law, Yhi Wong, Andrew Kennedy, Wang KangNing, John V. Reynolds, C.S. Pramesh, Mark K. Ferguson, Gail Darling, Wolfgang Schröder, Marc Bludau, Tim Underwood, Richard van Hillegersberg, Andrew C. Chang, Ivan Cecconello, Ulysses Ribeiro, Giovanni De Manzoni, Riccardo Rosati, MadhanKumar Kuppusamy, P. Thomas, Donald E. Low, International Esodata Study Group, Geoffrey Brioude, Delphine Trousse, Egle Jezerskyte, Wietse J. Eshuis, Richard Hardwick, Peter Safranek, John M. Bennett, Andrew Hindmarsh, Vijay Sujedran, Martin Hemmerich, Margerite Messier, Sebastien Degissors, Frederiek Nuytens, C. Mariette, Sjoerd M. Lagarde, Ali H. Zaidi, Janine Zylstra, James Gossage, Cara Baker, Mark Kelly, Simone Schillinger, Marta Gimeno, Fredrik Klevebro, Masaru Hayami, Toni Lerut, Johnny Moons, Hirofumi Kawakubo, Satoru Matsuda, Yuki Hirata, Julie M. Garrity, Huawei Tang, Manjit S. Bains, Joseph Dycoco, Kristen Busalacchi, Rebecca Carr, David R. Jones, Asim Shabbir, Michael J. Griffin, Helen Jaretzke, Neil T. Welch, Ravinder Vohra, James Catton, J. Saunders, Fadi Yanni, Daniela Zanotti, Pritam Singh, Larsen Nicolaj, Marcus Stilling, Charlie Borzy, Kayla Siemens, John M. Findlay, Stephen Ash, Iain Thomson, Andrew P. Barbour, Janine Thomas, John Whiting, Jeannette Kwok, Raymond Kennedy, Fang Qiang, Han YongTao, Penh Lin, Xiao WenGuang, Sinéad King, Ravinder Narayanasamy, Apurva Ashok, Amy Durkin-Celauro, Catherine Staub, Emma Small, Christiane J. Bruns, James Byrne, Jamie Kelly, Fergus Noble, Donna Sharland, Rachel Fraser, Rob F. Walker, Saqib Rahman, Ben Grace, Jelle P. Ruurda, Sylvia Van der Host, Arjen van der Veen, Gino M. Kuiper, Judy Miller, Shari Barnett, Rubens AA Sallum, Jacopo Weindelmayer, Carlo Alberto De Pasqual, Paolo Parisse, Andrea Cossu, Francesco Puccetti, Simonetta Massaron, Bonnie Marston · 发表于：JAMA Surgery · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1001/jamasurg.2021.2376 · 被引用次数：111 · 研究领域：Esophageal Cancer Research and Treatment、Esophageal and GI Pathology、Cardiac, Anesthesia and Surgical Outcomes

Importance: Ninety-day mortality rates after esophagectomy are an indicator of the quality of surgical oncologic management. Accurate risk prediction based on large data sets may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions. Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of death within 90 days after esophagectomy for cancer using the International Esodata Study Group (IESG) database, the largest existing prospective, multicenter cohort reporting standardized postoperative outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic/prognostic study, we performed a retrospective analysis of patients from 39 institutions in 19 countries between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019. Patients with esophageal cancer were randomly assigned to development and validation cohorts. A scoring system that predicted death within 90 days based on logistic regression β coefficients was conducted. A final prognostic score was determined and categorized into homogeneous risk groups that predicted death within 90 days. Calibration and discrimination tests were assessed between cohorts. Exposures: Esophageal resection for cancer of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause postoperative 90-day mortality. Results: A total of 8403 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.6 [9.0] years; 6641 [79.0%] male) were included. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.0% (n = 164), and the 90-day mortality rate was 4.2% (n = 353). Development (n = 4172) and v...