Scenario simulation of water resources development and utilization based on a system dynamics model

作者：Huan Wang, Jiejun Huang, Xuejun Cheng, Han Zhou, Yanbin Yuan · 发表于：International Journal of Water Resources Development · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1080/07900627.2021.1908235 · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Water resources management and optimization、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies、Water Resources and Sustainability

This paper establishes a quantitative model based on the system dynamics (SD) theory to reflect the ‘socioeconomic–water–environment’ coupling system and proposes three future development scenarios. Hubei province, China, is selected to verify this model. The simulation results from 2020 to 2030 demonstrate that the pressures of water supply and demand and pollution under the sustainable development scenario are less than those under two other scenarios. It means that adjustment of the industrial structure has a relatively weaker effect on alleviating the pressure of water supply and demand. Saving water and controlling pollution should be the emphasis of current efforts.