Artificial intelligence as a general-purpose technology: an historical perspective

作者：Nicholas F. R. Crafts · 发表于：Oxford Review of Economic Policy · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1093/oxrep/grab012 · 被引用次数：159 · 研究领域：Modeling, Simulation, and Optimization、Economic Development and Digital Transformation、The Impact of Diversity and Innovation on Society

Abstract This paper looks at the impact on productivity of general-purpose technologies such as steam, electricity, and ICT. It finds they had big effects but only with a lag which was substantial in the first two cases. The experience of the First Industrial Revolution is explored and it is found that this is not a template for a general-purpose technology having a major adverse effect on workers’ living standards. The essence of that industrial revolution was not rapid productivity growth in the short run, but the ‘invention of a new method of invention’ which increased technological progress in the long run. Since artificial intelligence is potentially a general-purpose technology that raises the productivity of research and development, it may be the basis for a Fourth Industrial Revolution.