Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling times and long delay to effect of interventions

作者：Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage, Christopher E. Overton, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Katrina Lythgoe, Elizabeth Fearon, Emma Bennett, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Rajenki Das, Martyn Fyles, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb, Thomas House, Ian Hall · 发表于：medRxiv · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1101/2020.04.12.20059972 · 被引用次数：81 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts、COVID-19 impact on air quality

Abstract The unconstrained growth rate of COVID-19 is crucial for measuring the impact of interventions, assessing worst-case scenarios, and calibrating mathematical models for policy planning. However, robust estimates are limited, with scientific focus on the time-insensitive basic reproduction number R 0. Using multiple countries, data streams and methods, we consistently estimate that European COVID-19 cases doubled every three days when unconstrained, with the impact of physical distancing interventions typically seen about nine days after implementation, during which time cases grew eight-fold. The combination of fast growth and long detection delays explains the struggle in countries’ response better than large values of R 0 alone, and warns against relaxing physical distancing measures too quickly. Testing and tracing are fundamental in shortening such delays, thus preventing cases from escalating unnoticed.