Potential impact of the dramatical expansion of Lake Qinghai on the habitat facilities and grassland since 2004

作者：Jian Cheng, Liu Changhua, Kai Liu, Jianshuang Wu, Chenyu Fan, Xue Bin, Ronghua Ma, Chunqiao Song · 发表于：Journal of Lake Sciences · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.18307/2021.0325 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Cryospheric studies and observations

作为我国最大的内陆咸水湖，青海湖是青藏高原东北部重要水汽源，在维持区域生态环境及半干旱生态系统功能方面发挥着重要作用.近年来，青海湖水位迅速上升，但是湖泊扩张对周边人居设施与草地的影响尚未得到广泛关注和报道.基于1995—2019年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、Hydroweb多源测高同化水位数据、SRTM-1 DEM数据等，本研究以青海湖近年来增长速率情景开展湖泊快速扩张对周边人居设施（道路、居民点）与草地影响和潜在威胁的定量研究.结果表明：1995—2004年期间青海湖处于萎缩态势，2004年水位和面积出现最小值，之后，青海湖进入稳定扩张期.2004—2019年期间，青海湖水位累计上涨3.27 m，年均增长率约为0.22 m/a；相应地，青海湖水量增长了14.25 km 3 ，年均增长率为0.95 km 3 /a.湖泊扩张模拟结果显示，若青海湖水量以当前速率增长，水位将在2070年前后达到3207 m （相对2019年约10 m的水位涨幅），届时将会淹没178个居民点、长度约为1286.91 km的道路以及2042.22 km 2 的植被，其中预测的高风险区域主要为切吉乡、泉吉乡和金滩乡.该研究有望为青海湖快速扩张对当地居民的影响和潜在威胁提供重要的科学参考，并在气候变化背景下为制定缓解气候变化风险的预案提供科学依据.;As China's largest inland saline lake, Lake Qinghai is an important source of water vapor in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, and plays an important role in the regional ecological environment and sustaining the semi-arid ecosystem function. In recent years, the water level of Lake Qinghai has risen rapidly, but the impact of lake expansion on the habitat facilities and grassland has not received widespread attention and reports. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI images from 1995 to 2019, Hydroweb multi-source altimetry measurements, and SRTM-1 DEM data, etc., this study aims to analyze the influence and potential threat of the lake rapid expansion on the habitat facilities (roads, settlements) and grassland by referring to the growth rate of Lake Qinghai in recent years. The results show that during the period of 1995-2004, Lake Qinghai was in a state of shrinkage, and the water level and area in 2004 was ...