National assessments of species vulnerability to climate change strongly depend on selected data sources

作者：Daniel Scherrer, Manuel Esperón‐Rodríguez, Linda J. Beaumont, Vı́ctor L. Barradas, Antoine Guisan · 发表于：Diversity and Distributions · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1111/ddi.13275 · 被引用次数：36 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Plant and animal studies

Abstract Aim Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are among the most frequently used tools for conservation planning under climate and land use changes. Conservation‐focused climate change studies are often conducted on a national or local level and can use different sources of occurrence records (e.g., local databases, national biodiversity monitoring) collated at different geographic extents. However, little is known about how these restrictions in geographic space (i.e., Wallacean shortfall) can lead to restrictions in environmental space (i.e., Hutchinsonian shortfall) and accordingly affect conclusions about a species’ vulnerability to climate change. Location Americas with a focus on Mexico. Methods We present an example study constructing SDMs for three Mexican tree species ( Alnus acuminata , Liquidambar styraciflua and Quercus xalapensis ) using datasets collated at a global (Americas), national (Mexico) and local (cloud forests of eastern Mexico) level to demonstrate the potential effects of a Wallacean shortfall on the estimation of the environmental niche—and thus on a Hutchinsonian shortfall—its projection in space and time and, consequently, on species’ potential vulnerability to climate change. Results The consequence of using the three datasets was species‐specific and strongly depended on the extent to which the Wallacean shortfall affected estimations of environmental niches (i.e., Hutchinsonian shortfall). Where restrictions in geographic space le...