Influential factors and spatial–temporal distribution of tuberculosis in mainland China

作者：Siyu Bie, Xijian Hu, Huiguo Zhang, Kai Wang, Zhihui Dou · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-021-85781-7 · 被引用次数：42 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that threatens human safety. Mainland China is an area with a high incidence of tuberculosis, and the task of tuberculosis prevention and treatment is arduous. This paper aims to study the impact of seven influencing factors and spatial-temporal distribution of the relative risk (RR) of tuberculosis in mainland China using the spatial-temporal distribution model and INLA algorithm. The relative risks and confidence intervals (CI) corresponding to average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average sunshine duration and monthly per capita GDP were 1.018 (95% CI 1.001-1.034), 1.014 (95% CI 1.006-1.023), 1.026 (95% CI 1.014-1.039) and 1.025 (95% CI 1.011-1.040). The relative risk for average temperature and pressure were 0.956 (95% CI 0.942-0.969) and 0.767 (95% CI 0.664-0.875). Spatially, the two provinces with the highest relative risks are Xinjiang and Guizhou, and the remaining provinces with higher relative risks were mostly concentrated in the Northwest and South China regions. Temporally, the relative risk decreased year by year from 2013 to 2015. It was higher from February to May each year and was most significant in March. It decreased from June to December. Average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average sunshine duration and monthly per capita GDP had positive effects on the relative risk of tuberculosis. The average temperature and pressure had negative effects. The average wi...