Development and validation of a simple-to-use nomogram to predict liver metastasis in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms: a large cohort study

作者：Maoen Pan, Yuanyuan Yang, Tianhong Teng, Fengchun Lu, Yanchan Chen, Heguang Huang · 发表于：BMC Gastroenterology · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1186/s12876-021-01685-w · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Neuroendocrine Tumor Research Advances、Lung Cancer Research Studies、Pancreatic and Hepatic Oncology Research

BACKGROUND: Liver metastasis is an important prognostic factor for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (pNENs), but the relationship between the clinical features of patients with pNEN and liver metastasis remains undetermined. The aim of this study was to establish and validate an easy-to-use nomogram to predict liver-metastasis in patients with pNEN. METHODS: We obtained the clinicopathologic data of 2960 patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were done to screen out independent influencing factors to establish the nomogram. The calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to compare the novel model with the conventional predictive methods. RESULTS: A total of 2960 patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms were included in the study. Among these, 1974 patients were assigned to the training group and 986 patients to the validation group. Multivariate logistic regression identified, tumor size, grade, other site metastasis, T stage and N stage as independent risk factors. The calibration plot showed good discriminative ability in the training and validation groups, with C-indexes of 0.850 for the training cohort and 0.846 for the validation cohort. The AUC values were 0.850 (95% CI 0.830-...