Estimating spatial variation in the effects of climate change on the net primary production of Japanese cedar plantations based on modeled carbon dynamics

作者：Jumpei Toriyama, Shoji Hashimoto, Yoko Osone, Naoyuki Yamashita, Tatsuya Tsurita, Takanori Shimizu, Taku M. Saitoh, Shinji Sawano, Aleksi Lehtonen, Shigehiro Ishizuka · 发表于：PLoS ONE · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1371/journal.pone.0247165 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：Forest ecology and management、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Horticultural and Viticultural Research

Spatiotemporal prediction of the response of planted forests to a changing climate is increasingly important for the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. In this study, we present a methodology for estimating spatially varying productivity in a planted forest and changes in productivity with a changing climate in Japan, with a focus on Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) as a representative tree species of this region. The process-based model Biome-BGC was parameterized using a plant trait database for Japanese cedar and a Bayesian optimization scheme. To compare productivity under historical (1996-2000) and future (2096-2100) climatic conditions, the climate scenarios of two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) were used in five global climate models (GCMs) with approximately 1-km resolution. The seasonality of modeled fluxes, namely gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil respiration, improved after two steps of parameterization. The estimated net primary production (NPP) of stands aged 36-40 years under the historical climatic conditions of the five GCMs was 0.77 ± 0.10 kgC m-2 year-1 (mean ± standard deviation), in accordance with the geographical distribution of forest NPP estimated in previous studies. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the mean NPP of the five GCMs increased by 0.04 ± 0.07 and 0.14 ± 0.11 kgC m-2 year-1, respectively. The increases in annual NPP were small in the ...