Modeling the impact of climate change on mussel aquaculture in a coastal upwelling system: A critical assessment

作者：Isabel Fuentes‐Santos, Uxío Labarta, María José Fernández‐Reiriz, Susan Kay, Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo, Xosé Antón Álvarez–Salgado · 发表于：The Science of The Total Environment · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145020 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies、Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses、Marine and fisheries research

Forecasting of climate change impacts on marine aquaculture production has become a major research task, which requires taking into account the biases and uncertainties arising from ocean climate models in coastal areas, as well as considering culture management strategies. Focusing on the suspended mussel culture in the NW Iberian coastal upwelling system, we simulated current and future mussel growth by means of a multistructural net production Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model. We considered two scenarios and three ocean climate models to account for climate uncertainty, and applied a bias correction to the climate models in coastal areas. Our results show that the predicted impact of climate change on mussel growth is low compared with the role of the seeding time. However, the response of mussels varied across climate models, ranging from a minor growth decline to a moderate growth increase. Therefore, this work confirms that an accurate forecasting of climate change impacts on shellfish aquaculture should take into account the variability linked to both management strategies and climate uncertainty.