Spring phenology outweighed climate change in determining autumn phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

作者：Jie Peng, Chaoyang Wu, Xiaoyue Wang, Linlin Lu · 发表于：International Journal of Climatology · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1002/joc.7045 · 被引用次数：65 · 研究领域：Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Urban Heat Island Mitigation

Abstract As the third pole of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is highly sensitive to climate change. Phenological changes in spring (i.e., the start of the growing season, SOS) over the TP are of much debate, while our understanding on the variation of autumn phenology (i.e., the end of the growing season, EOS) is still lacking. Given the significance of tracing the latest variation of EOS induced by the ongoing global change, we used the currently longest time series (1982–2018) of the normalized difference vegetation index of the Long Term Data Record from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR LTDR NDVI) and investigated the responses of EOS to biological and climatic factors. We found that the EOS showed an insignificantly delayed trend at an average rate of 0.14 days·decade−1 on the TP. This variation was found for all vegetation types except for alpine sparse vegetation. We further showed that spring SOS had the largest contribution to the interannual variations in EOS, where 46.5% of the vegetated areas showed significantly positive correlations between SOS and EOS (p < .05). Temperature (26.5%) and precipitation (18.8%) also had significant positive impacts on EOS, while the contribution of radiation was negative (11.3%). These correlations were regulated by local hydrothermal conditions, especially for precipitation gradients. Using the longest satellite data currently available, with the state‐of‐art data processing, we demonstrated a weakly delayin...