Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Sirex nitobei in China under Climate Change Using Maximum Entropy Model

作者：Tai Gao, Qiang Xu, Yang Liu, Jiaqiang Zhao, Juan Shi · 发表于：Forests · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.3390/f12020151 · 被引用次数：44 · 研究领域：Forest Insect Ecology and Management、Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior、Plant and animal studies

Sirex nitobei, an Asian native wood wasp species, is a major pest in coniferous commercial forestry, infesting and weakening conifers through its obligate mutualism with a wood-rotting fungus species. The combination of wood wasp larvae and obligate mutualistic fungus causes the breakdown of plant vascular tissue, leading to the weakening of the plant and eventually to death, as well as a high economic cost in commercial forestry. Since it was first recorded in China in the early 1980s, S. nitobei has widely spread and become successfully established. Despite its extensive distribution range, little is known about the factors influencing current and future distribution patterns for potential pest control and monitoring. We used a maximum entropy model in conjunction with climate variables and shared socio-economic pathways to predict the current and future distribution of S. nitobei in China. We used the jackknife method and correlation analysis to select the bioclimatic and environmental variables that influence the geographic distribution of S. nitobei, which resulted in the inclusion of the monthly total precipitation in July (prec7), the monthly average maximum temperature in February (tmax2), the monthly average minimum temperature in July (tmin7), the monthly total precipitation in December (prec12), and isothermality (bio3). We found that precipitation and temperature influenced the potentially suitable areas, as predicted by the maximum entropy model. Moreover, the as...