Genomic vulnerability and socio‐economic threats under climate change in an African rainforest bird

作者：Thomas B. Smith, Trevon Fuller, Ying Zhen, Virginia Zaunbrecher, Henri A. Thomassen, Kevin Y. Njabo, Nicola M. Anthony, Mary Katherine Gonder, Wolfgang Buermann, Brenda Larison, Kristen Ruegg, Ryan J. Harrigan · 发表于：Evolutionary Applications · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1111/eva.13193 · 被引用次数：15 · 研究领域：Genetic diversity and population structure、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Avian ecology and behavior

Abstract Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul ( Andropadus virens ). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability , defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype–environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and la...