Evolutionary trait‐based approaches for predicting future global impacts of plant pathogens in the genus Phytophthora

作者：Louise Barwell, A. Pérez‐Sierra, B. Henricot, Anna Harris, Treena I. Burgess, G.E.St.J. Hardy, Peter Scott, Nari Williams, David E. L. Cooke, Sarah Green, Daniel S. Chapman, Bethan V. Purse · 发表于：Journal of Applied Ecology · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1111/1365-2664.13820 · 被引用次数：47 · 研究领域：Plant Pathogens and Resistance、Plant Pathogens and Fungal Diseases、Yeasts and Rust Fungi Studies

Abstract Plant pathogens are introduced to new geographical regions ever more frequently as global connectivity increases. Predicting the threat they pose to plant health can be difficult without in‐depth knowledge of behaviour, distribution and spread. Here, we evaluate the potential for using biological traits and phylogeny to predict global threats from emerging pathogens. We use a species‐level trait database and phylogeny for 179 Phytophthora species: oomycete pathogens impacting natural, agricultural, horticultural and forestry settings. We compile host and distribution reports for Phytophthora species across 178 countries and evaluate the power of traits, phylogeny and time since description (reflecting species‐level knowledge) to explain and predict their international transport, maximum latitude and host breadth using Bayesian phylogenetic generalised linear mixed models. In the best‐performing models, traits, phylogeny and time since description together explained up to 90%, 97% and 87% of variance in number of countries reached, latitudinal limits and host range, respectively. Traits and phylogeny together explained up to 26%, 41% and 34% of variance in the number of countries reached, maximum latitude and host plant families affected, respectively, but time since description had the strongest effect. Root‐attacking species were reported in more countries, and on more host plant families than foliar‐attacking species. Host generalist pathogens had thicker‐walled re...