<p>Development and Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Elderly Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Liver Resection: A Competing Risk Analysis</p>

作者：Tao Wang, Jinfu Zhang, Wanxiang Wang, Xianwei Yang, Junjie Kong, Shu Shen, Wentao Wang · 发表于：Cancer Management and Research · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.2147/cmar.s272797 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Cholangiocarcinoma and Gallbladder Cancer Studies、Gallbladder and Bile Duct Disorders、Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis

BACKGROUND: There are few studies on the prognosis of elderly intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) patients after liver resection. The aims of this study were to assess the cumulative incidences of cancer-specific mortality in elderly iCCA patients and to construct a corresponding competing risk nomogram for elderly iCCA patients. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of elderly patients with iCCA who underwent liver resection between January 2006 and December 2019. Eligible elderly iCCA patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Based on the results of multivariate analysis using the Fine-Gray competing risk model, we developed a competing risk nomogram using data from the training set to predict the cumulative probabilities of iCCA-specific mortality. The performance of the nomogram was measured by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. To evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram, the clinical benefit was measured by using decision curve analysis (DCA). Furthermore, the patients were categorized into two groups according to the dichotomy values of the nomogram-based scores, and their survival differences were assessed using Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence function (CIF) curves. RESULTS: The 1-year, 3-year and 5-year cumulative iCCA-specific mortalities were 19.7%, 48.3% and 56.1%, respectively, for elderly iCCA patients. The multivariate Fine-Gray analysis indicated that microvascular invasio...