Burden of non-communicable diseases from infectious causes in 2017: a modelling study

作者：Matthew M Coates, Alexander Kintu, Neil Gupta, Emily B Wroe, Alma J Adler, Gene F. Kwan, Paul H. Park, Ruma Rajbhandari, Anthony Byrne, Daniel Casey, Gene Bukhman · 发表于：The Lancet Global Health · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30358-2 · 被引用次数：171 · 研究领域：Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology、Chronic Disease Management Strategies、Nutrition and Health in Aging

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause a large burden of disease globally. Some infectious diseases cause an increased risk of developing specific NCDs. Although the NCD burden from some infectious causes has been quantified, in this study, we aimed to more comprehensively quantify the global burden of NCDs from infectious causes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we identified NCDs with established infectious risk factors and infectious diseases with long-term non-communicable sequelae, and did narrative reviews between April 11, 2018, and June 10, 2020, to obtain relative risks (RRs) or population attributable fractions (PAFs) from studies quantifying the contribution of infectious causes to NCDs. To determine infection-attributable burden for the year 2017, we applied estimates of PAFs to estimates of disease burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 for pairs of infectious causes and NCDs, or used estimates of attributable burden directly from GBD 2017. Morbidity and mortality burden from these conditions was summarised with age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for geographical regions as defined by the GBD. Estimates of NCD burden attributable to infectious causes were compared with attributable burden for the groups of risk factors with the highest PAFs from GBD 2017. FINDINGS: Globally, we quantified 130 million DALYs from NCDs attributable to infection, comprising 8·4% of all NCD DALYs. The infection-NCD pairs w...