Detecting population declines via monitoring the effective number of breeders ( N b )

作者：Gordon Luikart, Tiago Antão, Brian K. Hand, Clint C. Muhlfeld, Matthew Boyer, Ted Cosart, Brian Trethewey, Robert Al‐Chockhachy, Robin S. Waples · 发表于：Molecular Ecology Resources · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1111/1755-0998.13251 · 被引用次数：39 · 研究领域：Fish Ecology and Management Studies、Genetic diversity and population structure、Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock

Abstract Estimating the effective population size and effective number of breeders per year ( N b ) can facilitate early detection of population declines. We used computer simulations to quantify bias and precision of the one‐sample LDNe estimator of N b in age‐structured populations using a range of published species life history types, sample sizes, and DNA markers. N b estimates were biased by ~5%–10% when using SNPs or microsatellites in species ranging from fishes to mosquitoes, frogs, and seaweed. The bias (high or low) was similar for different life history types within a species suggesting that life history variation in populations will not influence N b estimation. Precision was higher for 100 SNPs ( H ≈ 0.30) than for 15 microsatellites ( H ≈ 0.70). Confidence intervals (CIs) were occasionally too narrow, and biased high when N b was small ( N b < 50); however, the magnitude of bias would unlikely influence management decisions. The CIs (from LDNe ) were sufficiently narrow to achieve high statistical power (≥0.80) to reject the null hypothesis that N b = 50 when the true N b = 30 and when sampling 50 individuals and 200 SNPs. Similarly, CIs were sufficiently narrow to reject N b = 500 when the true N b = 400 and when sampling 200 individuals and 5,000 loci. Finally, we present a linear regression method that provides high power to detect a decline in N b when sampling at least five consecutive cohorts. This study provides guidelines and tools to simulate and est...