The Long-Term Trend Analysis and Scenario Simulation of the Carbon Price Based on the Energy-Economic Regulation

作者：Zhaopeng Li, Li Yang, Si-Rui Li, Xiaoling Yuan · 发表于：International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1108/ijccsm-02-2020-0020 · 被引用次数：25 · 研究领域：Energy, Environment, Economic Growth、Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies、Climate Change Policy and Economics

Purpose China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with various major challenges. One of the most important challenges is its impact on the social and economic development of arid and semi-arid regions. By simulating the carbon price trends under different economic development and energy consumption levels, this study aims to help the government can plan ahead to formulate various countermeasures to promote the integration of arid and semi-arid regions into the national carbon market. Design/methodology/approach To achieve this goal, this paper builds a back propagation neural network model, takes the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the research object and uses the mean impact value method to screen out the important driving variables of European Union Allowance (EUA) price, including economic development (Stoxx600, Stoxx50, FTSE, CAC40 and DAX), black energy (coal and Brent), clean energy (gas, PV Crystalox Solar and Nordex) and carbon price alternatives Certification Emission Reduction (CER). Finally, this paper sets up six scenarios by combining the above variables to simulate the impact of different economic development and energy consumption levels on carbon price trends. Findings Under the control of the unchanged CER price level, economic development, black energy and clean energy development will all have a cert...