Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study

作者：Jian Zu, Miaolei Li, Zongfang Li, Mingwang Shen, Yanni Xiao, Fanpu Ji · 发表于：Infectious Diseases of Poverty · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1186/s40249-020-00709-z · 被引用次数：72 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing、Zoonotic diseases and public health

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. METHODS: According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People's Republic of China during January 10-February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. RESULTS: The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067-87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16-6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350-61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567-2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The tot...