Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020

作者：Daniel M. Weinberger, Jenny Chen, Ted Cohen, Forrest W. Crawford, Farzad Mostashari, Donald R. Olson, Virginia E. Pitzer, Nicholas G Reich, Marcus Russi, Lone Simonsen, Anne E. Watkins, Cécile Viboud · 发表于：JAMA Internal Medicine · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3391 · 被引用次数：544 · 研究领域：COVID-19 and healthcare impacts、COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies、COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Importance: Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States have been hampered by state-level differences in diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization of individuals for testing, and delays between testing and reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19. Objective: To estimate the burden of all deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States from March to May 2020. Design, Setting, and Population: This observational study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020, using public data of the entire US population from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. All data analyzed were accessed on June 12, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Increases in weekly deaths due to any cause or deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 above a baseline, which was adjusted for time of year, influenza activity, and reporting delays. These estimates were compared with reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 and with testing data. Results: There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% pred...