Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

作者：Gerald A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, Veronika Eyring, Gregory M. Flato, Jean‐François Lamarque, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Manuel Schlund · 发表于：Science Advances · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 · 被引用次数：847 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.