Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

作者：Martin J. P. Sullivan, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum‐Baffoe, Carolina V. Castilho, Flávia R. C. Costa, Aida Cuní‐Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Abel Monteagudo‐Mendoza, Lan Qie, Bonaventure Sonké, Rodolfo Vásquez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Galbraith, Manuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Miguel N. Alexiades, Everton Cristo de Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Álvarez‐Dávila, Patricia Álvarez-Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami, E.J.M.M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter S. Ashton, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plínio Barbosa de Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean‐François Bastin, Sarah A. Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Érika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoît Burban, José Luís Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Cerón, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Víctor Chama Moscoso, Jérôme Chave, Éric Chézeaux, Connie J. Clark, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola da Costa, Martin Dančák, Greta C. Dargie, Stuart J. Davies, Nállarett Dávila, Thalès de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon del Águila Pasquel, Géraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean‐Louis Doucet, Aurélie Dourdain, Vincent Droissart, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry L. Erwin, Adriane Esquivel‐Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest G. Foli, Andrew Ford, Martin Gilpin, Jefferson S. Hall, Keith C. Hamer, Alan Hamilton, David J. Harris, Térese B. Hart, Radim Hédl, Bruno Hérault, Rafael Herrera, Níro Higuchi, Annette Hladik, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa‐Chuquimaco, Walter Huaraca Huasco, Kathryn J. Jeffery, E. Jiménez, Michelle Kalamandeen, Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo, Elizabeth Kearsley, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Lip Khoon Kho, Timothy J. Killeen, Kanehiro Kitayama, Bente Klitgaard, Alexander Koch, Nicolas Labrière, William F. Laurance, Susan G. W. Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Adriano José Nogueira Lima, Janvier Lisingo, Aline Pontes Lopes, Gabriela López‐González, Tom Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Richard Lowe, William E. Magnusson, Jagoba Malumbres‐Olarte, Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto, Ben Hur Marimon, Andrew R. Marshall, Toby R. Marthews, Simone Matias Reis, Colin R. Maycock, Karina Melgaço, Casimiro Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vianet Mihindou, William Milliken, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Paulo S. Morandi, Hannah L. Mossman, László Nagy, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça Nascimento, David Neill, Reuben Nilus, Percy Núñez Vargas, Walter A. Palacios, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Julie Peacock, Colin A. Pendry, María Cristina Peñuela Mora, Georgia Pickavance, John J. Pipoly, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Maureen Playfair, Lourens Poorter, John R. Poulsen, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Richard F. Preziosi, Adriana Prieto, Richard B. Primack, Hirma Ramírez‐Angulo, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Réjou‐Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo, Thaiane R. Sousa, Lily O. Rodríguez, Anand Roopsind, Agustín Rudas, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomão, Juliana Schietti, Douglas Sheil, Richarlly da Costa Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Camila V. J. Silva, Marcos Silveira, Murielle Simo‐Droissart, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, James Singh, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Clément Stahl, Juliana Stropp, Rahayu Sukmaria Sukri, Trey Sunderland, Martin Svátek, Michael Swaine, Varun Swamy, Hermann Taedoumg, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David Taylor, Hans ter Steege, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Sean C. Thomas, Armando Torres‐Lezama, Peter M. Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Peter van der Meer, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Hans Verbeeck, Ronald Vernimmen, Alberto Vicentini, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Emilio Vilanova, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Antoine Vos, Ophelia Wang, Lee White, Simon Willcock, John T. Woods, Verginia Wortel, Kenneth R. Young, Roderick Zagt, Lise Zemagho, Pieter A. Zuidema, Joeri A. Zwerts, Oliver L. Phillips · 发表于：Science · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1126/science.aaw7578 · 被引用次数：369 · 研究领域：Forest ecology and management、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Fire effects on ecosystems

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.