Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

作者：G. C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan Doelman, J. Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlík, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, J. Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer A. Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Xin Zhang · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020 · 被引用次数：1117 · 研究领域：Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Climate variability and models、Science and Climate Studies

Abstract. Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction ...