National, regional, and global burdens of disease from 2000 to 2016 attributable to alcohol use: a comparative risk assessment study

作者：Kevin D. Shield, Jakob Manthey, Margaret Rylett, Charlotte Probst, Ashley Wettlaufer, Charles Parry, Jürgen Rehm · 发表于：The Lancet Public Health · 年份：2020 · DOI：10.1016/s2468-2667(19)30231-2 · 被引用次数：541 · 研究领域：Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes、Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects、Prenatal Substance Exposure Effects

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use has increased globally, with varying trends in different parts of the world. This study investigates gender, age, and geographical differences in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease from 2000 to 2016. METHODS: This comparative risk assessment study estimated the alcohol-attributable burden of disease. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated by combining alcohol exposure data obtained from production and taxation statistics and from national surveys with corresponding relative risks obtained from meta-analyses and cohort studies. Mortality and morbidity data were obtained from the WHO Global Health Estimates, population data were obtained from the UN Population Division, and human development index (HDI) data were obtained from the UN Development Programme. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated using a Monte Carlo-like approach. FINDINGS: Globally, we estimated that there were 3·0 million (95% UI 2·6-3·6) alcohol-attributable deaths and 131·4 million (119·4-154·4) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2016, corresponding to 5·3% (4·6-6·3) of all deaths and 5·0% (4·6-5·9) of all DALYs. Alcohol use was a major risk factor for communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional diseases (PAF of 3·3% [1·9-5·6]), non-communicable diseases (4·3% [3·6-5·1]), and injury (17·7% [14·3-23·0]) deaths. The alcohol-attributable burden of disease was higher among men than among women, and the alcohol-attributable age-standardised burden ...