Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

作者：Christopher Troeger, Ibrahim A Khalil, Brigette F. Blacker, Molly H Biehl, Samuel B Albertson, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Puja C Rao, Degu Abate, Amha Admasie, Alireza Ahmadi, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed, Chalachew Genet Akal, Fares Alahdab, Noore Alam, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Saeed Amini, Mina Anjomshoa, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Suleman Atique, Euripide Avokpaho, Samah Awad, Ashish Awasthi, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Aleksandra Barać, Quique Bassat, Neeraj Bedi, Derrick Bennett, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Corey B Bills, Josip Car, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Kate Causey, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Aaron J. Cohen, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Ahmad Daryani, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Shirin Djalalinia, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Aman Yesuf Endries, Eduarda Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Joseph Frostad, Nancy Fullman, William M. Gardner, Birhanu Geta, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Giuseppe Gorini, Alessandra C. Goulart, Yuming Guo, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Samer Hamidi, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Chi Linh Hoang, Nobuyuki Horita, Mihaela Hostiuc, Zakir Hussain, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Spencer L James, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B Jonas, André Karch, Amir Kasaeian, Tesfaye Kassa, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Adane Teshome Kefale, Yousef Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Abdullah T Khoja, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Niranjan Kissoon, Luke D. Knibbs, Sonali Kochhar, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Rakesh Lodha, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Marek Majdán, Abdullah Al Mamun, Helena Manguerra, Varshil Mehta, Addisu Melese, Ziad A. Memish, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Shafiu Mohammed, Lorenzo Monasta, Catrin E. Moore, Lídia Morawska, Jonathan F Mosser, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Srinivas Murthy, Ghulam Mustafa, Javad Nazari, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Katie R. Nielsen, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Molly R Nixon, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Anselm Okoro, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Eyal Oren, Justin R. Ortiz, P A Mahesh, Smita Pakhalé, Maarten J. Postma, Mostafa Qorbani, Reginald Quansah, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Rajesh Kumar, Marissa B Reitsma, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Aziz Rezapour, María Jesús Ríos-Blancas, Luca Ronfani, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Salvatore Rubino, Zikria Saleem, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Aziz Sheikh, Mika Shigematsu, David L. Smith, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Belay Tessema, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Irfan Ullah, Rachel L Updike, Tommi Vasankari, Yousef Veisani, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Yasir Waheed, Katie Welgan, Kirsten E. Wiens, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Ebrahim M Yimer, Naohiro Yonemoto, Zoubida Zaidi, Heather J. Zar, Stephen S Lim, Theo Vos, Ali H. Mokdad, Christopher J L Murray, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Simon I Hay, Robert C. Reiner · 发表于：The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30410-4 · 被引用次数：180 · 研究领域：Respiratory viral infections research、Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections、Immune responses and vaccinations

BACKGROUND: Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. METHODS: We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the he...