Predicting impact of a biocontrol agent: integrating distribution modeling with climate‐dependent vital rates

作者：Benno A. Augustinus, Yan Sun, Carine Beuchat, Urs Schaffner, Heinz Müller‐Schärer · 发表于：Ecological Applications · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1002/eap.2003 · 被引用次数：37 · 研究领域：Biological Control of Invasive Species、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Forest Insect Ecology and Management

Species distribution models can predict the suitable climatic range of a potential biological control agent (BCA), but they provide little information on the BCA's potential impact. To predict high population buildup, a prerequisite of biocontrol impact, studies are needed that assess the effect of environmental factors on vital rates of a BCA across the environmental gradient of the BCA's suitable habitats, especially for the region where the BCA is considered for field release. We extended a published species distribution model with climate-dependent vital rates of Ophraella communa, a recently and accidentally introduced potential BCA of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe. In field and laboratory experiments, we collected data on climate-dependent parameters assumed to be the most relevant for the population buildup of O. communa, i.e., temperature driving the number of generations per year and relative humidity (RH) determining egg hatching success. We found that O. communa concluded one generation in 334 cumulative degree days, and that egg hatching success strongly decreased from > 80% to < 20% when RH drops from 55% to 45% during the day. We used these values to spatially explicitly project population densities across the European range suitable for both A. artemisiifolia and the beetle and found that the present distribution of the beetle in Europe is within the range with the highest projected population growth. The highest population density of O. com...