Different approaches to assess the local invasion risk on a threatened species: Opportunities of using high-resolution species distribution models by selecting the optimal model complexity

作者：Sara Santamarina, Estrella Alfaro‐Saiz, Félix Llamas, Carmen Acedo · 发表于：Global Ecology and Conservation · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00767 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Plant Pathogens and Fungal Diseases

Species distribution models (SDMs) are potential tools for the evaluation of the risk of biological invasions to threatened plant species and to prioritize areas for local conservation initiatives. This study seeks to analyze if the use of predictions of less overfit high-resolution SDMs can be highly accurate and can provide a spatial criterion on where the management actions for this local conservation initiatives can be focused, even when being calibrated with sub-optimal datasets of the species distribution ranges. We developed this approach in the Galician massif of Monte Pindo (NW Spain) with a small disjunct isolated population of Quercus lusitanica, which could be threatened by the expansion of Paraserianthes lophantha, a recently detected potentially invasive species from Australia. We compared the predictions of Maxent SDMs calibrated in different geographic extensions of the species distribution range, fitted with different variables, resolutions and levels of complexity. Two different extensions, a small local area restricted to Monte Pindo for both species and a greater regional area extended to the Galician invaded range for P. lophantha, were selected to fit SDMs using bioclimatic, topographic and land cover variables at fine-grain 25 × 25 m spatial resolution. They were compared there with those of SDMs fitted in the whole native ranges of each species with climate (WORLDCLIM datasets) and bioclimatic variables coarse-grain 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. The nat...