Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

作者：Tahvi Frank, Austin Carter, Deepa Jahagirdar, Molly H Biehl, Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Samantha Leigh Larson, Megha Arora, Laura Dwyer‐Lindgren, Krista M. Steuben, Hedayat Abbastabar, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Direslgne Misker Abyu, Maryam Adabi, Oladimeji Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Elham Ahmadian, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Chalachew Genet Akal, Fares Alahdab, Noore Alam, Samuel B Albertson, Birhan Alemnew, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Vahid Alipour, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Saeed Amini, Zohreh Anbari, Nahla Anber, Mina Anjomshoa, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Habtamu Abera Areri, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Daniel Asmelash, Anemaw Asrat, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Samad Azari, Alaa Badawi, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barać, Till Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Saba Abraham Belay, Yared Belete Belay, Yaschilal Muche Belayneh, Adugnaw Berhane, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Helen Bitew, Andrew Blinov, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Hunduma Amensisa Bojia, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Julio César Campuzano, Félix Carvalho, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Raquel Crider, Tukur Dahiru, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Ahmad Daryani, José das Neves, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Louisa Degenhardt, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Asmamaw Demis, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Díaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc, Linh Phuong Doan, Herbert C. Duber, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Bereket Duko Adema, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Ziad El‐Khatib, Aisha Elsharkawy, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Farshad Farzadfar, Batool Fatima, Netsanet Fentahun, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Nancy Fullman, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes, Getnet Gedefaw, Belayneh K Gelaw, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Birhanu Geta, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Themba T G Ginindza, H. C. Gugnani, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Michael Tamene Haile, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Samer Hamidi, Senad Handanagić, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Simon I Hay, Andualem Henok, Chi Linh Hoang, Hung Chak Ho, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mohamed Hsaïri, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Bulat Idrisov, Kevin S Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Spencer L James, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B Jonas, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amir Kasaeian, Belete Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Kassa, Gbenga A Kayode, Mihiretu Kebede, Adane Teshome Kefale, André Pascal Kengne, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Junaid Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Khaled Khatab, Salman Khazaei, Abdullah T Khoja, Ali Kiadaliri, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Sonali Kochhar, Hamidreza Komaki, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Desmond Kuupiel, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Jane Lee, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Emilie R Maddison, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Carlos Magis‐Rodríguez, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Marek Majdán, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Navid Manafi, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Anthony Masaka, Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga, Varshil Mehta, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Ted R. Miller, Babak Moazen, Bahram Mohajer, Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Yousef Mohammad, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Moslem Mohammadi, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani, Jemal Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H. Mokdad, Yoshan Moodley, Maryam Moossavi, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Marilita M. Moschos, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Moses Muriithi, Ghulam Mustafa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Farid Najafi, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Mehdi Noroozi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammed Suleiman Obsa, Emmanuel Odame, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Anselm Okoro, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Solomon Olum, Kwaku Oppong Asante, Eyal Oren, Stanislav S Otstavnov, P A Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Smita Pakhalé, Amir H. Pakpour, Sangram Kishor Patel, Kebreab Paulos, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Emmanuel Peprah, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Akram Pourshams, Mostafa Qorbani, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Salman Rawaf, Cesar Reis, Vishnu Renjith, Melese Abate Reta, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Carlos Miguel Ríos-González, Elias Merdassa Roro, Ali Rostami, Salvatore Rubino, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Saeed Safari, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Marwa Rashad Salem, Yahya Salimi, Joshua A. Salomon, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Mehdi Sayyah, Aletta E. Schutte, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Hamid Sharifi, Kenji Shibuya, Jae Il Shin, Reza Shirkoohi, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jasvinder A. Singh, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Mekonnen Sisay, Solomon Sisay, Amanda Smith, Anton Sokhan, Ranjani Somayaji, Sergey Soshnikov, Dan J. Stein, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bruno Sunguya, Bryan L. Sykes, Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Nuno Taveira, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Habtamu Temesgen, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Subash Thapa, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Stephanie M. Topp, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Olalekan A. Uthman, Yousef Veisani, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Yasir Waheed, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Girmay Teklay T Weldesamuel, Ronny Westerman, Tissa Wijeratne, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn, Addisu Gize Yeshanew, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Ebrahim M Yimer, Naohiro Yonemoto, Marcel Yotebieng, Yoosik Youm, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Afshin Zarghi, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Mohsen Naghavi, Stein Emil Vollset, Haidong Wang, Stephen S Lim, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet HIV · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1016/s2352-3018(19)30196-1 · 被引用次数：589 · 研究领域：HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions、HIV Research and Treatment、HIV-related health complications and treatments

BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortalit...