Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin

作者：Gaétan Lefebvre, Lauren Redmond, Christophe Germain, Elisa Palazzi, Silvia Terzago, Loïc Willm, Brigitte Poulin · 发表于：The Science of The Total Environment · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.263 · 被引用次数：77 · 研究领域：Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology、Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics、Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reser...