Health benefit of air quality improvement in Guangzhou, China: Results from a long time-series analysis (2006–2016)

作者：Rongshan Wu, Xiaoming Song, Duohong Chen, Liuju Zhong, Xiaoliang Huang, Yingchen Bai, Wei‐Syun Hu, Siqi Ye, Hongbing Xu, Baihuan Feng, Tong Wang, Yutong Zhu, Jiakun Fang, Shuo Liu, Jie Chen, Xuemei Wang, Yuanhang Zhang, Wei Huang · 发表于：Environment International · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.064 · 被引用次数：53 · 研究领域：Air Quality and Health Impacts、Climate Change and Health Impacts、Global Health Care Issues

Numerous epidemiologic studies on adverse health effects of air pollution have been well documented; however, assessment on health benefits of air quality improvement from air pollution control measures has been limited in developing countries. We assessed the mortality benefits associated with air pollution improvement over 11 years in Guangzhou, China (2006–2016). A time series analysis with Generalized additive Poisson models was used to estimate mortality effects of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), adjusting for time trend, day of week, public holiday, temperature and relative humidity. We further estimated the changes in mortality burden of O3 and NO2, including attributable fraction (AF, in %) and attributable mortality (AM, in number of death) during study period. We lastly estimated mortality effects during the 2010 Asian Games (November 12 to December 18, 2010) compared to a baseline period consisting of 4-week before and 4-week after the game. During the study period, average annual concentrations of NO2 decreased from 42.3 μg/m3 in 2006 to 33.8 μg/m3 in 2016; while O3 levels remained stable over time. We observed significant increases in mortality of O3 and NO2, with approximately linear exposure-response relationships. In specific, each increase of 10 μg/m3 in O3 and NO2 at 2 prior days was associated with increases of 0.60% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.47, 0.74) and 1.89% (95%CI: 1.49, 2.29) in total mortality, respectively. We further estimated that AF...