European all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality in the 2017/18 season: should the burden of influenza B be reconsidered?

作者：Jens Ole Nielsen, Lasse Skafte Vestergaard, Lukas Richter, Daniela Schmid, N. Bustos, Tommi Asikainen, Ramona Trebbien, Gleb Denissov, Kaire Innos, Mikko J. Virtanen, Anne Fouillet, Theodore Lytras, Kassiani Gkolfinopoulou, Matthias an der Heiden, Linus Grabenhenrich, Helmut Uphoff, Anna Páldy, J. Bobvos, Lisa M. Domegan, Joan Margaret O'Donnell, Matteo Scortichini, Annamaria De Martino, Joël Mossong, Kathleen England, Jackie Maistre Melillo, Liselotte van Asten, M. MA de Lange, Ragnhild Tønnessen, Richard Aubrey White, Susana Pereira Silva, Ana Paula Rodrigues, Amparo Larrauri, Clara Mazagatos, A. Farah, A. D. Carnahan, Christoph Junker, Mary Anissa Sinnathamby, Richard G. Pebody, Nick Andrews, Arlene J. Reynolds, Jim McMenamin, Colin Stewart Brown, Cornelia Adlhoch, Pasi M Penttinen, Kåre Mølbak, Tyra Grove Krause · 发表于：Clinical Microbiology and Infection · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1016/j.cmi.2019.02.011 · 被引用次数：140 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、Climate Change and Health Impacts、Respiratory viral infections research

OBJECTIVES: Weekly monitoring of European all-cause excess mortality, the EuroMOMO network, observed high excess mortality during the influenza B/Yamagata dominated 2017/18 winter season, especially among elderly. We describe all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality during the season 2017/18 in Europe. METHODS: Based on weekly reporting of mortality from 24 European countries or sub-national regions, representing 60% of the European population excluding the Russian and Turkish parts of Europe, we estimated age stratified all-cause excess morality using the EuroMOMO model. In addition, age stratified all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated using the FluMOMO algorithm, incorporating influenza activity based on clinical and virological surveillance data, and adjusting for extreme temperatures. RESULTS: Excess mortality was mainly attributable to influenza activity from December 2017 to April 2018, but also due to exceptionally low temperatures in February-March 2018. The pattern and extent of mortality excess was similar to the previous A(H3N2) dominated seasons, 2014/15 and 2016/17. The 2017/18 overall all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated to be 25.4 (95%CI 25.0-25.8) per 100,000 population; 118.2 (116.4-119.9) for persons aged 65. Extending to the European population this translates into over-all 152,000 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The high mortality among elderly was unexpected in an influenza B dominated season, which commonly are co...