Climatic Warming Increases Spatial Synchrony in Spring Vegetation Phenology Across the Northern Hemisphere

作者：Qiang Liu, Shilong Piao, Yongshuo H. Fu, Mengdi Gao, Josep Peñuelas, Ivan A. Janssens · 发表于：Geophysical Research Letters · 年份：2019 · DOI：10.1029/2018gl081370 · 被引用次数：75 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Climate variability and models

Abstract Climatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model averaging and four spring phenology models, and demonstrated that the start of vegetation growing season across the Northern Hemisphere will become substantially more synchronous (up to 11.3%) under future climatic warming conditions. Larger start of growing season advances are expected at higher than lower latitudes (3.7–10.9 days earlier) due to both larger rate in spring warming at higher latitudes and larger decreases in the temperature sensitivity of start of growing season at low latitudes. The consequent impacts on the northern ecosystems due to this increased synchrony may be considerable and thus worth investigating.