Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

作者：Bing Liu, Pierre Martre, Frank A. Ewert, John Roy Porter, Andy J. Challinor, Christoph Müller, Alex C. Ruane, Katharina Waha, Peter J. Thorburn, Pramod Kumar Aggarwal, Mukhtar Ahmed, Juraj Balkovič, Bruno Basso, Christian Biernath, Marco Bindi, Davide Cammarano, Giacomo De Sanctis, Benjamin Dumont, Mónica Espadafor, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Roberto Ferrise, Margarita García‐Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Yujing Gao, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Roberto Cesar Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Belay T. Kassie, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Christian Klein, Ann‐Kristin Koehler, Andrea Maiorano, Sara Minoli, M. Montesino, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J. O’Leary, Taru Palosuo, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Reimund Paul Rötter, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio Stöckle, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Marijn van der Velde, Daniel Wallach, Enli Wang, Heidi A. Webber, Joost Wolf, Liujun Xiao, Zhao Zhang, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Peng Zhu, Senthold Asseng · 发表于：Global Change Biology · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1111/gcb.14542 · 被引用次数：179 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Plant responses to elevated CO2、Climate variability and models

Abstract Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more ...