Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study

作者：Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Emilie R Maddison, Nathaniel J Henry, Jorge R Ledesma, Kirsten E. Wiens, Robert C. Reiner, Molly H Biehl, Chloe Shields, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Jennifer M. Ross, Austin Carter, Tahvi Frank, Haidong Wang, Vinay Srinivasan, Sanjay Agarwal, Fares Alahdab, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Jason R. Andrews, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Suleman Atique, Sachin Atre, Ashish Awasthi, Henok Tadesse Ayele, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Aleksandra Barać, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Saba Abraham Belay, Isabela M. Benseñor, Zahid A Butt, Félix Carvalho, Kelly Cercy, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Ahmad Daryani, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, David Teye Doku, Manisha Dubey, Dumessa Edessa, Ziad El‐Khatib, Shymaa Enany, Eduarda Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Demeke Geremew, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Rahul Gupta, Hassan Haghparast‐Bidgoli, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Andualem Henok, Sorin Hostiuc, Mamusha Aman Hussen, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Jost B Jonas, Amaha Kahsay, Surya Kant, Amir Kasaeian, Tesfaye Kassa, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Ibrahim Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Yun Jin Kim, Sonali Kochhar, Ai Koyanagi, Kristopher J Krohn, G Anil Kumar, Ayenew Molla Lakew, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Rakesh Lodha, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Reza Majdzadeh, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Addisu Melese, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, Tomislav Meštrović, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Ghulam Mustafa, Jean B. Nachega, Long Hoang Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Vuong Minh Nong, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Eyal Oren, David M. Pereira, Swayam Prakash, Mostafa Qorbani, Anwar Rafay, Rajesh Kumar, Usha Ram, Salvatore Rubino, Saeid Safiri, Joshua A. Salomon, Abdallah M Samy, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Mehdi Sharif, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jasvinder A. Singh, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Bach Xuan Tran, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Olalekan A. Uthman, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Giang Thu Vu, Fitsum Weldegebreal, Andrea Werdecker, Ebrahim M Yimer, Naohiro Yonemoto, Marcel Yotebieng, Mohsen Naghavi, Theo Vos, Simon I Hay, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30625-x · 被引用次数：453 · 研究领域：Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology、Malaria Research and Control、Immune responses and vaccinations

BACKGROUND: Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million...