Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

作者：Senthold Asseng, Pierre Martre, Andrea Maiorano, Reimund P. Rötter, Garry J. O’Leary, Glenn J. Fitzgerald, Christine Girousse, Rosella Motzo, Francesco Giunta, Md Ali Babar, Matthew Reynolds, Ahmed M. S. Kheir, Peter J. Thorburn, Katharina Waha, Alex C. Ruane, Pramod Aggarwal, Mukhtar Ahmed, Juraj Balkovič, Bruno Basso, Christian Biernath, Marco Bindi, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J. Challinor, Giacomo De Sanctis, Benjamin Dumont, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, E. Fereres, Roberto Ferrise, Margarita García‐Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Yujing Gao, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, R. C. Izaurralde, Mohamed Jabloun, Curtis D. Jones, Belay T. Kassie, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Christian Klein, Ann‐Kristin Koehler, Bing Liu, Sara Minoli, M. Montesino, Christoph Müller, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Jørgen E. Olesen, Taru Palosuo, John R. Porter, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Marijn van der Velde, Daniel Wallach, Enli Wang, Heidi Webber, Joost Wolf, Liujun Xiao, Zhao Zhang, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Zhu, Frank Ewert · 发表于：Global Change Biology · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1111/gcb.14481 · 被引用次数：566 · 研究领域：Plant responses to elevated CO2、Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact、Crop Yield and Soil Fertility

Abstract Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO 2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO 2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.