Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

作者：Gregory A. Roth, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomón Mequanente Abay, Cristiana Abbafati, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Abebe Zegeye, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Semaw Ferede Abera, Olifan Zewdie Abil, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Manfred Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Abdu A. Adamu, Oladimeji Adebayo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Mina G Adib, Amha Admasie, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Kareha M Agesa, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Rufus Akinyemi, Nadia Akseer, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Fares Alahdab, Khurshid Alam, Shazia Alam, Animut Alebel, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala’a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Jordi Alonso, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Léopold Ndemnge Aminde, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Nahla Anber, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mina Anjomshoa, Hossein Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Olatunde Aremu, Johan Ärnlöv, Amit Arora, Monika Arora, Al Artaman, Krishna K Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Zerihun Ataro, Suleman Atique, Sachin Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Yohanes Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Peter Azzopardi, Arefeh Babazadeh, Umar Bacha, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Ayele Geleto Bali, Katherine E Ballesteros, Maciej Banach, Kajori Banerjee, Marlena S. Bannick, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Miguel A. Barboza, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Sı́món Barquera, Lope H. Barrero, Quique Bassat, Sanjay Basu, Bernhard T. Baune, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Ezra Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L. Bell, Aminu K. Bello, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adam E. Berman, Eduardo Bernabé, Robert S. Bernstein, Gregory J Bertolacci, Mircea Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, Ashish Bhalla, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Molly H Biehl, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Ver Bilano, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Donal Bisanzio, Tuhin Biswas, Brigette F. Blacker, Berrak Bora Başara, Rohan Borschmann, Cristina Bosetti, Kayvan Bozorgmehr, Oliver J. Brady, Luísa Campos Caldeira Brant, Carol Brayne, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle B. Britton, Traolach Brugha, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A Butt, Charlton Callender, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Julio César Campuzano, Jorge Cano, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan Jesús Carrero, Austin Carter, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Chris D Castle, Clara Castro, Franz Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Yazan Chaiah, Jung‐Chen Chang, Fiona Charlson, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Flavia Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Aarón Cohen, Leslie T. Cooper, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, Ewerton Cousin, Benjamin C Cowie, Michael H Criqui, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Christopher S. Crowe, John A. Crump, Matthew Cunningham, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Siddharth Kumar Das, Rajat Das Gupta, José das Neves, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, Adrian Davis, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Kairat Davletov, Fernando de la Hoz, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Meaza Girma Degefa, Louisa Degenhardt, Tizta T Degfie, Selina Deiparine, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Balem Demtsu, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C. Des Jarlais, Getenet Dessie, Subhojit Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Dicker, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, Eric L. Ding, M. Ashworth Dirac, Shirin Djalalinia, Клара Докова, David Teye Doku, Christl A. Donnelly, E. Ray Dorsey, Pratik P. Doshi, Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Kerrie Doyle, Tim Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, André Rodrigues Durães, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Dumessa Edessa, David Edvardsson, Anne Elise Eggen, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Ziad El‐Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Matthias Endres, Aman Yesuf Endries, Benjamin Er, Holly E Erskine, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Reza Esmaeili, Alireza Esteghamati, Mahdi Fakhar, Hamed Fakhim, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Farzaneh Farhadi, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, André Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Valery L. Feigin, Andrea B Feigl, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, João Carlos Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Florian Fischer, Christina Fitzmaurice, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Carla Fornari, Tahvi Frank, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Nancy Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Neal D. Futran, Silvano Gallus, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, William M. Gardner, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Bereket Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Ricard Gènova-Maleras, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Peter W. Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman, Mamata Ghimire, Katherine B. Gibney, Paramjit Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Ginawi, Maurice Giroud, Giorgia Giussani, Shifalika Goenka, Ellen M Goldberg, Srinivas Goli, Hector Gómez‐Dantés, Philimon Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Taren M Gorman, Atsushi Goto, Alessandra C. Goulart, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Ayman Grada, Giuseppe Grosso, H. C. Gugnani, André Luiz Sena Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Prakash C. Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Bishal Gyawali, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Hilda L Harb, S Harikrishnan, Josep María Haro, Mehedi Hasan, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Simon I Hay, Yihua He, Akbar Hedayatizadeh‐Omran, Mohamed Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Mohsen Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Pouria Heydarpour, Sousan Heydarpour, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Hans W. Hoek, Michael K. Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, Hung Chak Ho, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Thomas Hsiao, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Abdullatif Husseini, Mohammedaman Mama Hussen, Susan Hutfless, Bulat Idrisov, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Nazrul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Leila Jahangiry, Nader Jahanmehr, Sudhir K. Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Moti Tolera Jalu, Spencer L James, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Kathy J. Jenkins, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Ankur Joshi, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Rizwan Kalani, Manoochehr Karami, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Corine Karema, Hamidreza Karimi‐Sari, Amir Kasaeian, Dessalegn H Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Kassa, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Zhila Kazemi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Dhruv Satish Kazi, Adane Teshome Kefale, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, André Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Khader, Behzad Khafaei, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Muhammad Ali Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Mona M Khater, Abdullah T Khoja, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam, Daniel N Kiirithio, Daniel Kim, Young‐Eun Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Adnan Kısa, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Jonathan Kocarnik, Sonali Kochhar, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Tufa Kolola, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael Kravchenko, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Michael Kutz, Ihor Kuzin, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Deepesh Lad, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Jennifer O. Lam, Faris Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Sônia Lansky, Heidi J. Larson, Arman Latifi, Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Mostafa Leili, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Shanshan Li, Li Y, Juan Liang, Lee‐Ling Lim, Stephen S Lim, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Chris Lonsdale, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Raimundas Lunevičius, Stefan Ma, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Mark T. Mackay, Jennifer H MacLachlan, Emilie R Maddison, Fabiana Madotto, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Dhaval P Maghavani, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Ana-Laura Manda, Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho, Helena Manguerra, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Dadi Marami, Joemer C Maravilla, Wagner Marcenes, Laurie B. Marczak, Ashley Marks, Guy B. Marks, Gabriel Martínez, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Ira Martopullo, Winfried März, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Joseph Masci, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Manu Raj Mathur, Prashant Mathur, Richard Matzopoulos, Pallab K Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Brian J. McMahon, Suresh Mehata, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M. Mehta, Varshil Mehta, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, George A. Mensah, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Anoushka Millear, Ted R. Miller, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, GK Mini, Parvaneh Mirabi, Mojde Mirarefin, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Habtamu Mitiku, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Moslem Mohammadi, Noushin Mohammadifard, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Viswanathan Mohan, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Shane D. Morrison, Marilita M. Moschos, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Ulrich Müeller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kate Muller, John Everett Mumford, Jonah Musa, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Jean B. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Aliya Naheed, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Sanjeev Nair, Farid Najafi, Luigi Naldi, Hae‐Sung Nam, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Nahid Neamati, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Subas Neupane, Charles R. Newton, Frida Ngalesoni, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Nguyễn Quỳnh Anh, Grant Nguyen, Ha Thu Nguyen, Huong Thanh Nguyen, Long H. 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Robinson, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ali Rostami, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, Perminder S. Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Hosein Safari, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Nasir Salam, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Sundeep Salvi, Inbal Salz, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Damian Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, João Vasco Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sâo José, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Arundhati R Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Mehdi Sayyah, Elke Schäeffner, María Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, James G. Scott, Mario Šekerija, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván‐Mori, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Katya Anne Shackelford, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Mehdi Shahbazi, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Peilin Shi, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Ivy Shiue, Farhad Shokraneh, Mark G. Shrime, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, Donald H. Silberberg, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Natacha Torres da Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Ambrish Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Karen Sliwa, Mari Smith, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Soheila Sobhani, Eugène Sobngwi, Samir Soneji, Moslem Soofi, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Ireneous N Soyiri, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Vladimir I. Starodubov, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Leo G Stewart, Mark A. Stokes, Michelle Subart, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Patrick John Sur, Ipsita Sutradhar, Bryan L. Sykes, PN Sylaja, Dillon O Sylte, Cassandra Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Ken Takahashi, Nikhil Tandon, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, T. Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Omar Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Belay Tessema, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Nihal Thomas, Amanda G. Thrift, George D. Thurston, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G. To, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anna E Torre, Miguel Tortajada‐Girbés, Mathilde Touvier, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Suryakant Tripathi, Christopher Troeger, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Nu Thi Truong, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Derrick Tsoi, Lorainne Tudor Car, E. Murat Tuzcu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Rachel L Updike, Muhammad Usman, Olalekan A. Uthman, Selen Begüm Uzun, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Afsane Vaezi, Gaurang Vaidya, Pascual Valdéz, Elena A. Varavikova, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Santos Villafaina, Francesco Saverio Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Gregory R. Wagner, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell T. Wallin, Judd L. Walson, Yanping Wang, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Molla Mesele Wassie, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Fitsum Weldegebreal, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Andrea Werdecker, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, T. Eoin West, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Justyna Widecka, Lauren B. Wilner, Shadrach Wilson, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles Wolfe, Shouling Wu, Yun-Chun Wu, Grant M. A. Wyper, Denis Xavier, Gelin Xu, Simon Yadgir, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Bereket Yakob, Lijing L. Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Alex Yeshaneh, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Gerald Yonga, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Chuanhua Yu, Vesna Zadnik, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Anthony Lin Zhang, Kai Zhang, Maigeng Zhou, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Zühlke, Mohsen Naghavi, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32203-7 · 被引用次数：8741 · 研究领域：Global Maternal and Child Health、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Autopsy Techniques and Outcomes

BACKGROUND: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and ca...