Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

作者：Max Griswold, Nancy Fullman, Caitlin Hawley, Nicholas Arian, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Hayley Tymeson, Vidhya Venkateswaran, Austin Douglas Tapp, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Joseph S Salama, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Degu Abate, Solomón Mequanente Abay, Cristiana Abbafati, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Abebe Zegeye, Victor Aboyans, Mohammed Mehdi Abrar, Pawan Acharya, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Tara Ballav Adhikari, José Carmelo Adsuar, Mohsen Afarideh, Emilie Agardh, Gina Agarwal, Sargis A. Aghayan, Sutapa Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Mohammed Akibu, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Deena Alasfoor, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Fares Alahdab, Khurshid Alam, Ammar Albujeer, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Raghib Ali, Syed Danish Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala’a Alkerwi, Peter Allebeck, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Léopold Ndemnge Aminde, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Colin Angus, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Olatunde Aremu, Johan Ärnlöv, Al Artaman, Krishna K Aryal, Reza Assadi, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Henok Tadesse Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Ayuk Betrand Tambe, Peter Azzopardi, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Lope H. Barrero, Huda Basaleem, Estifanos Baye, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Yannick Béjot, Abate Bekele Belachew, Saba Abraham Belay, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Eduardo Bernabé, Robert S. Bernstein, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Tina Beyranvand, Soumyadeeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Nigus Bililign, Sait Mentes Birlik, Charles Birungi, Hailemichael Bizuneh, Peter Bjerregaard, Tone Bjørge, Guilherme Borges, Cristina Bosetti, Soufiane Boufous, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Hermann Brenner, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Bianca Calabria, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Julio César Campuzano, Giulia Carreras, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Jung‐Chen Chang, Fiona Charlson, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Rajiv Chowdhury, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Liliana G Ciobanu, Rafael Moreira Claro, Sara Conti, Ewerton Cousin, Michael H Criqui, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Paul I. Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, José das Neves, Kairat Davletov, Filipa de Castro, Barbora de Courten, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Louisa Degenhardt, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Don C. Des Jarlais, Subhojit Dey, Rupinder Singh Dhaliwal, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, David Teye Doku, Kerrie Doyle, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Dumessa Edessa, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Ermakov Sp, Holly E Erskine, Alireza Esteghamati, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Andrea Farioli, André Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes, Eduarda Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Cleusa P. Ferri, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Irina Filip, Jonas D. Finger, Florian Fischer, Abraham D Flaxman, Richard C. Franklin, Neal D. Futran, Silvano Gallus, Morsaleh Ganji, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Reza Ghadimi, Lilian Ghandour, Mamata Ghimire, Paramjit Gill, Ibrahim Ginawi, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Philimon Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Carolyn Gotay, Alessandra C. Goulart, Felix Greaves, Giuseppe Grosso, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Murthy GVS, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Hilda L Harb, S Harikrishnan, Josep María Haro, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Behzad Heibati, Andualem Henok, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Norberto Francisco Hernández-Llanes, Claudiu Herţeliu, Desalegn Ts Tsegaw Hibstu, Praveen Hoogar, Nobuyuki Horita, Hung Chak Ho, Mostafa Hosseini, Mihaela Hostiuc, Guoqing Hu, Hsiang Huang, Abdullatif Husseini, Bulat Idrisov, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Maria Jackson, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Moti Tolera Jalu, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, U Kapil, Amir Kasaeian, Tesfaye Kassa, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Norito Kawakami, Seifu Kebede, Adane Teshome Kefale, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, André Pascal Kengne, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Ibrahim A Khalil, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Mona M Khater, Jagdish Khubchandani, Cho‐il Kim, Daniel Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Sonali Kochhar, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Veena S. Kulkarni, Pushpendra Kumar, Alessandra Lafranconi, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Hilton Y. Lam, Faris Lami, Qing Lan, Justin J. Lang, Sônia Lansky, Anders Larsson, Arman Latifi, Janet L Leasher, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Li Y, Lee‐Ling Lim, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Andrea Lobato-Cordero, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Ísis Eloah Machado, Fabiana Madotto, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, José Martı́nez-Raga, Pallab K Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, Martin McKee, Varshil Mehta, Toni Meier, Tesfa Mekonen, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Addisu Melese, Peter Memiah, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, George A. Mensah, Tuomo J Meretoja, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Noushin Mohammadifard, Shafiu Mohammed, Lorenzo Monasta, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kamarul Imran Musa, Aliya Naheed, Gurudatta Naik, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Mudavath Siva Durga Prasad Nayak, Chakib Nejjari, Subas Neupane, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Pedro R. Olivares, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Anu Mary Oommen, Eyal Oren, Heather Orpana, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Justin R. Ortiz, Erika Ota, Mayowa Owolabi, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, P A Mahesh, Adrian Pană, Eun‐Kee Park, Charles Parry, Hadi Parsian, Ajay Patle, George Patton, Deepak Paudel, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, Julian David Pillay, Maarten J. Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Mostafa Qorbani, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Saša Rajšić, Sree Bhushan Raju, Usha Ram, Saleem M Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Robert C. Reiner, Cesar Reis, André M. N. Renzaho, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Robin Room, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ali Rostami, Gregory A. Roth, Ambuj Roy, Yogesh Sabde, Basema Saddik, Saeid Safiri, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Joseph S Salama, Zikria Saleem, Joshua A. Salomon, Sundeep Salvi, Juan Sanabria, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Damian Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Mete Şaylan, Michael P Schaub, María Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta E. Schutte, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehdi Sharif, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Jiabin Shen, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Sharvari Shukla, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Natacha Torres da Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Freddy Sitas, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Moslem Soofi, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Nadine Steckling, Dan J. Stein, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Patrick John Sur, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Subash Thapa, Nihal Thomas, Roman Topór-Mądry, Fotis Topouzis, Bach Xuan Tran, Christopher Troeger, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Olalekan A. Uthman, Pascual Valdéz, Job F. M. van Boven, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Fasil Wagnew, Yasir Waheed, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Fitsum Weldegebreal, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Justyna Widecka, Tissa Wijeratne, Grant M. A. Wyper, Gelin Xu, Tomohide Yamada, Yuichiro Yano, Pengpeng Ye, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Geevar Zachariah, Zoubida Zaidi, Mohammad Zamani, Xueying Zhang, Sanjay Zodpey, Ali H. Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Christopher J L Murray, Emmanuela Gakidou · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31310-2 · 被引用次数：3630 · 研究领域：Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes、Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects、Alcoholism and Thiamine Deficiency

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. METHODS: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. FINDINGS: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk fa...